Western Conference
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Jazz had little trouble disposing of the Alston-less, Yao-less Rockets in the first round, winning in 6 games. But the Lakers are coming off a sweep of the Nuggets, and the Jazz will have trouble stopping the Kobe-Odom-Gasol trio as well as scoring enough points to win this series. Deron Williams can't do it alone.
Lakers in 7
San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Hornets
The Spurs turned it on against the Suns, winning the series easily in 5 games. The Hornets did the same to the Mavericks, setting up this exciting series. In the end, I don't see anyone on the Spurs slowing down Chris Paul.
Hornets in 7
Eastern Conference
Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons
The Magic dumped the Raptors in 5, while the Pistons played around with the 76ers for a while before winning in 6. I don't see Detroit playing around against the Magic. The experience of Detroit will have them prepared to slow down Dwight Howard and the Magic.
Pistons in 7
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
The Cavs proved me wrong in round one, beating the Arenas-less Wizards in 6. Meanwhile, the Celtics got a huge wake-up call by taking the Hawks to 7 games before eliminating them. I think the Atlanta series woke Boston up, and they should play better and eliminate LeBron's defending Eastern Conference Champs.
Celtics in 7
My First Round Record: 4-4
1 Miami Dolphins | Jake Long (OT) Michigan
2 St. Louis Rams | Chris Long (DE) Virginia
3 Atlanta Falcons | Matt Ryan (QB) BC
4 Oakland Raiders | Darren McFadden (RB) Arkansas
5 Kansas City Chiefs | Glenn Dorsey (DT) LSU
6 NY Jets | Vernon Gholston (DE) Ohio St
7 New Orleans Saints | Sedrick Ellis (DT) USC
8 Jacksonville Jaguars | Derrick Harvey (DE) Florida
9 Cincinnati Bengals | Keith Rivers (OLB) USC
10 New England Patriots | Jerod Mayo (OLB) Tennessee
16 Arizona Cardinals Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB) Tenn St 17 Detroit Lions Gosder Cherilus (OT) BC 18 Baltimore Ravens Joe Flacco (QB) Delaware 19 Carolina Panthers Jeff Otah (OT) Pittsburgh 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Aqib Talib (CB) Kansas 21 Atlanta Falcons Sam Baker (OT) USC 22 Dallas Cowboys Felix Jones (RB) Arkansas 23 Pittsburgh Steelers Rashard Mendenhall (RB) Illinois 24 Tennessee Titans Chris Johnson (RB) E Carolina 25 Dallas Cowboys Mike Jenkins (CB) S Florida 26 Houston Texans Duane Brown (OT) Va Tech 27 San Diego Chargers Antoine Cason (CB) Arizona 28 Seattle Seahawks Lawrence Jackson (DE) USC 29 San Francisco 49ers Kentwan Balmer (DT) UNC 30 NY Jets Dustin Keller (TE) Purdue 31 NY Giants Kenny Phillips (S) Miami
Western Conference
Lakers in 6 over Nuggets : Better talent
Rockets in 7 over Jazz: Brain says Jazz, but heart says hometown team will prevail.
Suns in 7 over Spurs: They didn't forget last year's cheap shot by Robert Horry, and dominated the defending champs last week on national TV.
Mavericks in 7 over Hornets: More experience
Eastern Conference
Celtics in 4 over Hawks: 66 wins owns 37
Wizards in 7 over Cavs: Not enough talent on LeBron's team
Magic in 6 over Raptors: Not enough strength to conatin Howard on the Raptors
Pistons in 5 over 76ers: Nice run by Philly, but Detroit's experience handles the Sixers.
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2007 Record: 83-79Projected 2008 Record: 85-77
The Lineup
The Brewers’ lineup could be the best in the division this year. SS J.J. Hardy is coming off a breakout season (.277, 26 HR, 80 RBI in 2007) and is a great top of the lineup hitter. 2007 NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun has moved to left field, and he and MVP Candidate Prince Fielder are the best 3-4 hitters under 25 in the game. With the signing of CF Mike Cameron (.242, 21 HR, 78 RBI in 2007), Bill Hall moves back to the infield at 3B and is looking for a bounce back year. Jason Kendall brings stability at the catcher position, and slightly more offense than Johnny Estrada.
The Pitching:
Ben Sheets and prospect Yovani Gallardo will anchor this pitching staff. Both must stay healthy, however, for the Brewers to make the postseason. Behind them, veterans Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Capuano are decent pitchers and should be fine. In the bullpen, the Brewers sign Eric Gagne from free agency. We’ll see if Gagne has gotten over the Mitchell Report and if he can regain his dominant form he had last season in Texas before being traded to Boston.
The Key
The key once again this year is the bullpen. The Brewers struggled keeping leads during the stretch last season so Guillermo Mota, Solomon Torres, Derrick Turnbow, and Gagne must protect games this year for the Brewers to win the division.
2. Chicago Cubs
2007 Record: 85-77Projected 2008 Record: 84-78
The Lineup
Brian Roberts or not, this lineup is solid. With the returning pieces of LF Alfonso Soriano, SS Ryan Theriot (.266, 3 HR, 45 RBI in 2007), 1B Derek Lee, 3B Aramis Ramirez, and 2B Mark DeRosa and the addition of Japanese sensation RF Kosuke Fukudome, balls will be flying out of Wrigley at a rapid pace this year. As great the 1 through 6 guys are, the bottom of the lineup is unproven as CF Felix Pie and C Geovany Soto are out to prove that they belong in the majors.
The Pitching
This pitching improved last season and should be okay. Ace Carlos Zambrano and all the baggage that comes with him needs to lead this staff, with southpaws Ted Lilly and Rich Hill (11-8, 3.92 ERA in 2007), and veterans Jason Marquis, and Jon Lieber behind him. Young, ecstatic Carlos Marmol (5-1, 1.43 ERA, 1 SV) should be a solid closer if he can seize the job.
The Key
As with any team with potential postseason hopes, the key is the pitching. If Marquis, Lieber, and Marmol can produce for the Cubbies, I think they can make the playoffs.
3. Cincinnati Reds
2007 Record: 72-90Projected 2008 Record: 80-82
The Lineup
The Reds didn’t add much in the off season as far as the lineup concerns. 2B Brandon Phillips (.288, 30 HR, 94 RBI in 2007) and Scott Hatteberg (.310, 10 HR, 47 RBI in 2007) are coming off their best seasons and makeup the right side of the infield. Corner outfielders Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn bring power as well as veteran leadership to a young team. David Ross will bring a veteran presence to catcher, but will struggle in this potent lineup.
The Pitching:
Ace Aaron Harang is one of the most underrated players in all of baseball and leads Dusty Bakers’ rotation. Veterans Bronson Arroyo, Josh Fogg, and Jeremy Affeldt are solid, while 21 year old phenom Homer Bailey looks to prove he belongs in the major leagues. In the pen, Francisco Cordero (0-4, 2.98 ERA, 44 SV in 2007) allows David Weathers to move back to being a setup man.
The Key
This Reds’ team may be the most improved in MLB this season. However, the veterans on this team must produce to inspire the young guys like Bailey and 3B Edwin Encarnacion to do so as well. Cincy can make a wildcard push this season, something that hasn’t happened in a long time.
4. Houston Astros
2007 Record: 73-89Projected 2008 Record: 75-87
The Lineup
This is the Astros’ best lineup since 2004, and there is no question about it. New General Manager Ed Wade has added many new faces to the lineup this season, including CF Michael Bourn who should bring needed speed to the top of the lineup. New SS Miguel Tejada (.296, 18 HR, 81 RBI in 2007) looks to put the Mitchell Report behind him and take advantage of the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. Young catcher J.R. Towles is an upgrade over Brad Ausmus as he showed promise last September. Then, of course, is the heart of the lineup, with 1B Lance Berkman looking for a bounce back year, LF Carlos Lee, RF Hunter Pence (.322, 17 HR, 69 RBI in 2007), and 3B Ty Wigginton. Overall, expect a lot of runs scored this year in Houston.
The Pitching
Sigh. That’s all I can say about my hometown team’s pitching. Behind ace Roy Oswalt, the Astros have a bunch of number four and five starters. Brandon Backe hopes to have an injury-free year, while Woody Williams is coming off his worst season. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez (9-13, 4.58 ERA in 2007) was a decent pitcher at times last year, but is very inconsistent . Jose Valvarde is an upgrade over Brad Lidge at closer, but needs to prove that last season was not a fluke.
The Key
This lineup will score a ton of runs this year. But the pitching looks awful and unless the Astros hope to win every game 8-7 this year, Houston is looking at another disappointing season.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
2007 Record: 78-84Projected 2008 Record: 71-91
The Lineup
The Cards got rid of franchise players Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, breaking up most of the World Series team of 2006. 1B Albert Pujols, LF Chris Duncan, and 3B Troy Glaus must carry the offense as the rest of the lineup looks weak. The outfield of Duncan, Rick Ankiel, and Skip Schumaker may be the weakest in the divison. SS Cesar Izturis is out to prove that he has anything left, while C Yadier Molina (.275, 6 HR, 40 RBI in 2007) may turn out to be the fourth best hitter in this puny lineup.
The Pitching
With ace Chris Carpenter out until the all-star break and Mark Mulder still battling injury problems, this pitching staff may have a long year. Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper made successful transitions from the bullpen to being starters last season, but are not top of the rotation type pitchers. Veteran Joel Pineiro is coming off a decent season, but Kyle Lohse, Anthony Reyes, and Matt Clement are not impressive pitchers coming off bad years. Jason Isringhausen is good closer, but how many opportunities will he get?
The Key
This team is clearly rebuilding and have a lot of players that look washed up. If any of these “washed up” players shows something in 2008, it’s a plus for the Redbirds.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
2007 Record: 68-94Projected 2008 Record: 67-95
The Lineup
This lineup didn’t change much over winter, with the same average players. LF Jason Bay is coming off a bad year, while 2B Freddy Sanchez (.304, 11 HR, 81 RBI in 2007) and 1B Adam LaRoche are coming off great seasons. All three must produce consistently for the Pirates. 3B Jose Bautista, SS Jack Wilson, and RF Xavier Nady are average to bad, while CF Nyjer Morgan and C Ronny Paulino are unproven major league hitters.
The Pitching
The pitching shows promise, if anything. Their best starter is righty Ian Snell (9-12, 3.76 ERA in 2007) who hopes to improve. Behind him are lefties Tom Gorzelanny, Paul Maholm, and Zach Duke, all who have shown glimpses of their potential, but have been inconsistent. At the end of the rotation is washed up righty Matt Morris, who they acquired in a stupid trade at the deadline last year. Closing for the Bucs this year is young, hard throwing Matt Capps, who replaces an inadequate Solomon Torres.
The Key
The key is for all the unproven young players to produce this season. Otherwise, the Pirates will have their 16th straight losing season.
Find out about the historic day in Tampa, Florida on my March Madness Central blog: http://red.blogs.aol.com/njktmac213/marchmadness/.
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Hey, just dropping in for a post. Here are my thoughts on what has happened since my last post.
On to the allstar stuff.
The T-Mobile Rookie Challenge is tonight where Brandon Roy and the Sophomores look for a sixth straight win over Kevin Durant and the Rookies. Full rosters are on http://aol.nba.com/allstar2008/rookie_challenge/
Allstar Saturday Night has many events, with the two best being the Sprite Slam Dunk Contest and the Foot Locker Three-Point Shootout.
The Dunk Contest participants are Gerald Green (defending champion), Dwight Howard, Rudy Gay, and Jamario Moon. The three-point shootout participants are Jason Kapono (defending champion), Daniel Gibson, Rip Hamilton, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, and Peja Stojakovic.
Yes, I know you were anxiously awaiting this preview the whole week. When you didn’t get it, you started to get worried. Kind of like the media when they spotted Tom Brady wearing a boot. … I don’t really know where I’m going with this, so let’s get to the breakdown.
QBs: Eli Manning vs. Tom Brady
Eli Manning has played turnover free football throughout the three road playoff games and I expect a solid performance from him. However, Tom Brady is in a class of his own, going for his fourth ring, and has this team on his back (or rather arm).
Edge: Patriots
RBs: Brandon Jacobs-Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Laurence Maroney-Kevin Faulk
The Giant running backs are the true definition of Yin and Yang. Jacobs, a tough 265 pound bruiser, is a great runner between the tackles. I expect him to spike another football into the wall at University of Phoenix Stadium Sunday night. Meanwhile, Bradshaw has run well in the playoff games as a speedster. Ultimately, the Patriots need to stop this combo and force Eli Manning to beat them. On the other side of the field, Lawrence Maroney has quieted all the critics who say the Pats can’t run the ball. He had 122 yards rushing and a touchdown in each of the two AFC Playoff games. The Patriots CAN run the ball. They just choose not to. Faulk should be great in this game on dump-offs and screens to offset this aggressive Giants front seven.
Slight Edge: Giants
WRs: Burress-Toomer vs. Moss-Stallworth-Welker
Plaxico Burress made a Pro-Bowl corner look silly in the NFC Championship (Al Harris). He’ll have to again in the Superbowl (Asante Samuel) to give the Giants a chance. Amani Toomer has been great in the playoffs as well, but he is prone to drops at critical times in games. Meanwhile, Randy Moss broke records with Tom Brady all year. Stallworth is a great speed receiver, and Wes Welker (added off waivers by me in Week 3 :) ) was a great find for the #1 Passing Offense in the NFL this year.
Edge: Patriots
Defense:
Giants:
I already mentioned the Giants’ aggressive front seven which consists of Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora, maybe the best DE duo in football this season. However, the Giants secondary is very shaky and hurt, and will be exploited by New England’s passing attack. The key is applying pressure on Brady, or this defense is in for a long night.
Patriots:
With the Patriots offense putting up 50 points per game throughout the year, this Patriots’ defense has not needed to play very hard for very long. When games got tighter in the playoffs, however, they answered the bell, picking off David Garrard on a key possession in the Divisional Round and holding the Chargers to four field goals in the AFC Championship.
Edge: Patriots
Kickers: Lawrence Tynes vs. Stephen Gostkowski
Giants:
Tynes got bailed out by the Giants defense in the NFC Championship, kicking a game-winning 47 yard field goal in overtime. His two misses in the fourth quarter nearly cost his team the conference championship. If there is a close game, Tynes must answer the bell, because the Patriots will not give him any second chances.
Patriots:
Gostkowski rarely hit the field as a field-goal kicker this year, with the Patriots offense being so efficient. He has the leg, though, with a career long of 52 yards, and, like all other New England post-season kickers is clutch.
Edge: Patriots
Coach:
Coughlin has done a great job turning around this Giants team amidst all the criticism early in the year in New York. However, Belichick, even with the Spygate fiasco, is one of the all-time greats. He’ll have his team as ready as they can be when they hit the field Sunday.
Edge: Patriots
Bottom Line:
I think the Giants can keep the game close behind their running game and aggressive defense. Ultimately, however, Tom Brady will have his way with the Giants’ secondary and will lead his team to a fourth championship and a perfect 19-0 season.
My prediction:
24 
21
Last week's record: 1-1
Season record: 173-93
| Playoffs - Conference Championships | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday, 20 January | |||||
| San Diego | at | New England | 03:00pm | ||
| NY Giants | at | Green Bay | 06:30pm | ||
Last week's record: 2-2
Season record: 172-92
